mandag den 16. september 2019

IRAN DENIES
LAUNCHING DRONE ATTACKS
ON
SAUDI OIL FACILITYS
By
Søren Nielsen
2019


Satellite imagery shows smoke rising from Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil processing facility after drone attacks claimed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels sparked huge fires on Saturday.


Foreign ministry counters accusations from US secretary of state with threats to US bases.

Iran has dismissed US accusations that it was responsible for a series of explosive drone attacks on the world’s largest petroleum processing facility in Saudi Arabia that disrupted more than half of the kingdom’s oil output and could affect global supplies.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebel group claimed responsibility for launching waves of drones at state-owned Saudi Aramco facilities early on Saturday morning. 

But the US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, said there was no evidence the drones were launched in Yemen and accused Iran of "an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply".


Iranian officials rejected those claims on Sunday and warned that US military assets in the region were within range of its missiles. "Having failed at max pressure, Pompeo is turning to max deceit," the Iranian foreign minister, Javad Zarif, wrote on Twitter.




Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi told state TV the American claim was "pointless". A senior commander from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that the Islamic republic was ready for "full-fledged" war.

"Everybody should know that all American bases and their aircraft carriers in a distance of up to 2,000km around Iran are within the range of our missiles," the head of the Revolutionary Guards Corps’ aerospace force, Amirali Hajizadeh, was quoted as saying by the semi-official Tasnim news agency.

Saudi Arabia’s oilfields and pipelines have been targeted by rebels over the past year but never on such a scale and causing such disruption. 

Aramco said the attacks would cut output by 5.7 million barrels a day, more than 5% of global crude supply.

Oil futures jumped in the wake of the attack. Brent crude was up more than 10% and Donald Trump authorised the release of oil from the US strategic petroleum reserve, if needed.

Donald Trump tweeted that the amount to be released was "to-be-determined" but it would be "sufficient to keep the markets well supplied".


"I have also informed all appropriate agencies to expedite approvals of the oil pipelines currently in the permitting process in Texas and various other states," he tweeted.




Saudi-led military coalition has been fighting Houthi forces in Yemen for the past four years in a war viewed partly as a proxy for the wider battle for regional supremacy between Saudi Arabia and Iran. 

Both the Houthis and Iran deny allegations by Saudi and western leaders that Tehran is funding, arming and training the rebel group.


The attacks are the most damaging and deepest within Saudi territory that have yet been claimed by the Yemeni rebels, and demonstrate the vulnerability of the world’s fossil fuel supply to attacks by low-tech, relatively cheap weapons.

Saudi Aramco is preparing for what Saudi Arabia hopes will be the world’s largest-ever public listing and the fuel for crown prince Mohammad bin Salman’s ambitious plan to transform the Saudi economy by 2030.

But achieving the $2tn evaluation it hopes for will require the market to shrug off concerns about weakening long-term demand for the fossil fuel, as well as the ongoing US-China trade war and the prospect of a global economic slowdown.

Analysts said Saturday’s attack also exposed the vulnerability of the company to geopolitical strife. "The attacks could complicate Aramco’s initial public offering (IPO) plans given rising security risks and potential impact on its valuation," said analysts led by Ayham Kamel, head of Middle East and North Africa research at the Eurasia Group.

"Abqaiq is the nerve centre of the Saudi energy system. Even if exports resume in the next 24 to 48 hours, the image of invulnerability has been altered," 

Helima Croft, the global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told Reuters.

Some Iraqi media outlets claimed the attack originated from their country, where Iran-backed paramilitary groups are growing in capability. 

However, a spokesman for Iraq’s ministry of defence dismissed this on Sunday. "Iraq calls on all parties to stop these attacks which cause great losses of life & facilities," Yehia Rasool wrote on Twitter.

Donald Trump called Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman after the attack to express US support for Saudi security, the Saudi foreign ministry said.

Robert McNally, of the US-based Rapidan Energy Group, said: 

"Abqaiq is perhaps the most critical facility in the world for oil supply. Oil prices will jump on this. If disruption to production is prolonged, a Strategic Petrol Reserves release from International Energy Agency (IEA) members seems both likely and sensible. If anything, the risk of tit-for-tat regional escalation, which pushes oil prices even higher, has just gone up significantly."

Britain’s foreign minister, Dominic Raab, condemned Saturday’s attacks, calling them an attempt to disrupt global oil supplies.

"This was a reckless attempt to damage regional security and disrupt global oil supplies. The UK condemns such behaviour unreservedly," Raab said on Twitter.

The UN secretary general, Antonio Guterres, also condemned the attacks and called on all sides "to exercise maximum restraint, prevent any escalation amid heightened tensions and to comply at all times with International Humanitarian Law".


The IEA said it was "monitoring the situation closely". A spokesman added: 

"We are in contact with Saudi authorities as well as major producer and consumer nations. For now, markets are well supplied."




Donald Trump has said the US is "locked and loaded" and ready to respond to attacks on a petroleum processing facility in Saudi Arabia, as US officials said the evidence pointed to Iranian involvement.

The US president did not mention Iran, but wrote on Twitter that he had "reason to believe that we know the culprit" behind the series of attacks on the Abqaiq facility, which is the world’s largest petroleum processing plant. 

The attacks disrupted more than half of the kingdom’s oil output and will affect global supplies.

Donald Trump tweeted: 

"We are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as to who they believe was the cause of this attack and under what terms we would proceed!"

It is the first time the president has hinted at a potential American military response.

As tensions rose in the Gulf, Iran’s semi-official news agency ISNA reported that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards had seized a vessel for allegedly smuggling 250,000 litres of diesel fuel to the United Arab Emirates. 

It follows a series of incidents involving shipping in and around the Gulf after US sanctions on Iranian oil exports took full effect in May.

The US government has produced satellite photos showing what officials said were at least 19 points of impact on Saturday at two Saudi energy facilities, including damage at the heart of the kingdom’s crucial oil processing plant at Abqaiq. 

Officials told US media the photos show impacts consistent with the attack coming from the direction of Iran or Iraq, rather than from Yemen to the south. 

Iraq denied that its territory was used for an attack on the kingdom. US officials said a strike from there would be a violation of Iraq’s sovereignty.

The US officials said additional devices, which apparently didn’t reach their targets, were recovered northwest of the facilities and are being jointly analysed by Saudi and American intelligence. 

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters, did not address whether the weapons could have been fired from Yemen, then taken a round-about path, but did not explicitly rule it out.


Oil prices rose in the wake of the attack to reach six-month highs on Monday, with gains of as much as 20%. Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, gained almost $12 a barrel reaching up to $71.95 a barrel, before dropping back to $68 a barrel.




The US secretary of state Mike Pompeo claimed over the weekend that Iran was responsible for the attack, which was claimed by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebel group. Pompeo said there was no evidence the weapons were launched in Yemen and accused Iran of "an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply".

Iran has denied allegations of responsibility. Its foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi said of Pompeo’s comments that "such fruitless and blind accusations and remarks are incomprehensible and meaningless."


Iranian officials have also warned that US military assets in the region are within range of its missiles. 

"Having failed at max pressure, Pompeo is turning to max deceit,” the Iranian foreign minister, Javad Zarif, wrote on Twitter.

As the diplomatic crisis deepened, Trump tweeted that reports he had been willing to meet with Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian president, before the attacks were false. 

"The Fake News is saying that I am willing to meet with Iran, No Conditions. That is an incorrect statement (as usual!)," he tweeted on Sunday.


But political commentators were quick to point out that those comments came from Pompeo and treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin, who five days ago said on camera that Trump was willing to meet with Rouhani with "no preconditions" at the upcoming United Nations General Assembly in New York.

On Monday Mousavi said no plans had been made for Trump and Rouhani to meet.

Over the weekend a senior commander from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that the Islamic republic was ready for "full-fledged" war.

"Everybody should know that all American bases and their aircraft carriers in a distance of up to 2,000km around Iran are within the range of our missiles," the head of the Revolutionary Guards Corps’ aerospace force, Amirali Hajizadeh, was quoted as saying by the semi-official Tasnim news agency.

Saudi de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has said the kingdom was "willing and able" to respond to this "terrorist aggression."

Inflamed fears about Middle East tensions and worsening relations between Iran and the United States, powered safe-haven assets, with gold up 1% to $1,503.4 per ounce.

"The bigger issue is what premium markets will build in to reflect the risk of further attacks," said Kerry Craig, a strategist JP Morgan.


"In the very near-term, we may also see a pick-up in safe-havens. Central banks are likely to look through the inflationary impact of higher oil prices but the added geopolitical risk to an already fragile backdrop will not go without notice."

No casualties were reported but the full extent of the damage from Saturday’s attack was not clear, nor the type of weapons used, and reporters were kept away from the plants amid beefed-up security.

Aramco also said it will dip into its reserves to offset the disruption. On Saturday, CEO Amin Nasser said that "work is underway" to restore production, but the incident could affect investor confidence ahead of Aramco’s stock market debut.


A significant volume of oil production can be restored within days but the company would need weeks to reach full output again, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday.

So finally Israel now get their war with Iran, but it is the United States that must fight it for Israel.

My personal opinion is that the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia have made the attack on Saudi Oil, and it`s a red flag ops, and why I said that, is because of 2 things.

1: To fulfill the United States and Israel's dream of a war with Iran to get there`s oil.

2: That Saudi Arabia is running out of oil, so as not to lose power, when the people discover that there is no more oil, then it is eases to blame Iran for their lack of oil because of the attack.


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