EXCESS MORALITY IN 
DENMARK IN THE LAST 7 WEEKS 
IS RELATED TO COVID-19

By

Søren Nielsen

2021

Denmark is now experiencing a higher mortality than expected during the covid-19 epidemic.

Based on the ongoing weekly monitoring of mortality in Europe through the EuroMOMO program, the Statens Serum Institut (SSI) assesses that we now, for the first time during the covid-19 epidemic, have a significant excess mortality in Denmark.

That means more deaths than expected.

The excess mortality since week 51.

The calculations so far (02.02.2021) show a total excess mortality of 1,198 people since mid-December 2020, distributed per week as follows:

Week 51: 223

Week 52: 160

Week 53: 209

Week 01: 164

Week 02: 135

Week 03: 201

Week 04: 104

The percentage deviation from the expected level for this period is about 15%. 

However, the figures for recent weeks are still uncertain due to some delay in the registration of deaths, even though the figures have been corrected for this delay.

The observed mortality is also shown by the graph below. 

It shows the expected and the observed number of deaths per week total for all ages during the last year.

By "expected" number of deaths is meant the number of deaths in periods when there is no extraordinary health risk, such as. covid-19 or influenza. 

The estimated based on historical data.

By "Registration" means the number of registered deaths in the week.

By "Corr. for delay in registration" means the estimated actual number of deaths, which is the registered number of deaths corrected for the typical known delay in the death registration. 

The threshold of 2 z-score represents the limit of excess mortality, while the threshold of 4 z-score represents the limit of significant excess mortality.

The excess mortality is due to covid-19.

We often see excess mortality in the winter due to the flu, but not this season when the flu virus is largely absent. 

There is also no higher incidence of other serious infectious diseases, SSI’s surveillance figures show. 

Therefore, the current excess mortality can be explained with covid-19, related to the increasing spread of infection we saw during the month of December. 

SSI expects to see a decrease in mortality in line with the lower infection rates in recent weeks as a result of the tightened restrictions and vaccinations started.

"The current excess mortality in Denmark must be seen in the light of the absence of the usual flu season as well as fewer respiratory infections in general this winter. The fatal consequences of the widespread infection with covid-19 in recent weeks will thus become clear ", says the ward doctor, says Lasse S. Vestergaard from SSI, who is the coordinator of the EuroMOMO program.

Deaths per Age Group (The Whole Country).

The numbers are from Staten Serum Institut.

The COVID-19 deaths are today 2502 death. (15.05.21).